King Don! the New York Post blares (April 20).
Hill Cruises Against Bernie.
After This, It Sure Looks All DonHill From Here
So it’s Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump in the general election. Or
that’s what the betting money is telling you.
Cable news is awash with NOTHING but this story. (Except that the image
of Harriet Tubman has been chosen to replace former president Andrew Jackson on
the $20 bill, the most common note in middle-class circulation. Huzzah!)
As to Primary School (don’t even start with how the Caucus works). In New
York (these are state rights, not to be assumed for the 49 other
jurisdictions), a closed primary system, only registered Democrats can vote in
the Democratic Primary. As to Republicans, that’s governed by their own state
rules, and yes, for Republicans, you also have to be a registered Republican to
vote in the Republican Primary.
Then delegates get selected … Here’s a look-see on the GOP New York
process from a website that is actually as cogent as possible given the depth
of convolution (from Bustle.com):
“The Republican
Party does things differently in New York, as it does in many other states.
It's not a strict winner-take-all state, because the candidate who gets the
most, or even a majority, of votes in the state doesn't get all its 95
Republican delegates. In certain circumstances, though, a candidate may win all
of a certain type of delegate in New York.
New York has three automatic,
11 at-large, and 81 congressional district delegates, Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ
reports. The 14 automatic and at-large delegates can all be won by a Republican
candidate if he wins over 50 percent of the
statewide vote. If no candidate does so, the delegates will be awarded
proportionally. Also note that there's a 20 percent threshold, which means a
candidate must earn at least that much of the statewide vote to be eligible for
any of these 14 delegates. Say a candidate doesn't get over 20 percent: any of
the 14 delegates that would have gone to him proportionally without that
threshold go to the candidate who received the most votes statewide.
Congressional district delegates — the biggest haul of
the day — are allocated in a similar way, Putnam explains. Each of New York's
27 congressional districts has three delegates up for grabs. If a candidate
gets a majority of the vote (remember: that means over 50 percent, not just
more than any other candidate) within a congressional district, he gets all
three delegates. There is also a 20 percent threshold to qualify for this type
of delegate. If more than one candidate gets above 20 percent of the vote but
nobody has a majority, then the one with the most votes gets two of the three
available delegates, and the second-place finisher within the district gets the
last one.
That's a lot of numbers;
let's put them in the context of the current race, using Real Clear Politics' polling average for the GOP New York primary as a guide (This post was made before
The Post’s King Don cover). Donald Trump has been hovering just above 50
percent in his home state, with Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich teetering on
the 20 percent qualifying threshold. If these numbers reflect how primary
voters statewide cast their ballots on April 19, then Trump would get all 14
at-large and automatic delegates. Of course, Trump's majority lead is fragile
going into New York, and he may very well perform below 50 percent, freeing up
some of those at-large delegates to Cruz and Kasich, so long as they are each
able to pull off at least 20 percent of the vote statewide.
It's harder to predict what would happen in the state's
81 congressional districts. Kasich and Cruz could clear 20 percent in several
of them, but Trump is likely to be the plurality winner (meaning he'd have the
most, but not necessarily a majority) in many of them. So Cruz and Kasich can
expect to walk away with some delegate scraps from a second-place finish here
or there and maybe even a first-place performance there, but probably shouldn't
hold their breath for much else.”
Got it? … That’s enough Primary School for today …
Next: Running for Your Life: If the Greats Were With Us
Thursday
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